Sunday, June 15, 2008

FairTax 'absurdity' author wasn't hiding; just clueless

Back to the $1 loaf of bread...

The grocer can lower the price by the embedded tax, so can the baker, so can the flour mill and the yeast factory, the farmer, and the seed company also drop their prices by the embedded taxes. Oh and all the transportation steps from farm to mill to bakery to store, these also cut prices by their respective slice of the embedded tax. And what else the electricity for lights & ovens & grinders & silos & conveyors... they drop by the embedded tax too.

What I'm trying to convey only partially is called fan-out. Each step in the process from store, to bakery, to flour mill, to wheat farm, to grain seed has suppliers that also have suppliers.

Every supplier in this chain pays taxes on their labor and their profits. The mathematicians have developed a simple way to tally up all the contributions from a single point in the chain; calculus comes to our aid allowing us to sum all the contributions from a long and expanding supply chain.

Believe it or not, this stuff is taught in every Econ 101 class; it's up to the student to learn it.

So Mark did get it partially correct on the 1st step. The grocer saves the 6% soc sec contribution match. But then his public school education failed him... The grocer's cost of labor just dropped 6%.

Let's look at his cost of a loaf... Since the baker also gained a 6% labor cost cut the price of the loafs also dropped by some portion too (hint: it's less than 6% so far, but be patient) So did all his other costs, like bags, twine, cash register tape, shopping cart wheels... *everything*

So the grocer's operating expenses have now taken a significant dip. If he's greedy he could try to keep his price the same and make more profit, but news spreads fast! Competition will force the prices down to the point where the profits are back to what they were. Plenty of data and precedent to support this.

Now the government isn't gonna let the world operate tax free, so in their own interest they're gonna slap a tax on tho keep their appetites satisfied. So they all but say, *WE* want the difference between what you saved and the old price of $1. So the price stays the same and the gumming gets their revenue. The point of collection is the retail vendor, the tax is buried in the retail price, still, but because it's all lumped in in one place it's really easy to identify. That's the supply chain part of the story...

Let's see what happens after all that supply chain dust settles...

The grocer also saves the income tax on his profit, let's say the grocer makes $0.10 profit and his income tax rate is 20%. Just like the supply chain for goods, the grocer is paying for the tax on the profits of his suppliers. It's another ripple back, each supplier has suppliers...

Again, there isn't much argument here as to whether or not the effects of a price put downstream will exist or not. We all seem to recognize they will. (there are a few who still don't get the "embedded vs. inclusive/exclusive" and think that the $1 loaf will cost a $1.30, but they're just too stupid to endure)

When we consider the income tax as just another $0.02 in the series of cost reductions, we see that the price of the $1.00 loaf of bread is still $1.00, it's just that we're starting to see how the gov takes it's cut.

Finally, let's look at the controversial issue of "keeping what you earn". First, if you think you do now, you're just plain foolish! Let's examine SocSec. 6% of what you "earn" is lifted from your paycheck. You don't get it! So we can move that from the Income tax policy to the FairTax policy without any argument. If you don't like it, fight the law today as it exists... write us from jail.

So in one paragraph we just decreased the nations labor cost by another 6%, and since most folks never reach the SocSec cap, arguing the point is moot.

Next item on the block for transfer from Income tax to FairTax: Medicare ~2% So between the first two social taxes we've knocked 14% off the cost of labor for every link in the chain.

The items identified thus far are what are referred to an non-controversial. You may not like the SocSec or Medicare taxes moving from the Income to the FairTax side via employers, but it really makes zero difference (unless you're already cheating on your taxes).

The linchpin issue for many opponents is the FICA. Employers withhold part of your earnings and send them to the IRS as a courtesy. (some courtesy, it's the law) You file taxes on what you earn on April 15. Depending on what your taxes really are you may see a change in your "wages" but since we've already shown those 'wages' to be fictional you should keep reading.

Let's look at the 'normal' worker, we'll come back and look at extraordinary & unusual situations later. Each week FICA withholds from 0% to 28% of your fictitious 'gross pay' we'll use 15% from now on... so every week you live on 71% of your gross pay or your "net pay".

The folks that had their withholding correct, well they're gonna see the same paycheck next week that they saw last week. For these folks the issue is a pass.

Now some folks count on that refund check every year, which means their net pay really should have been a little more than it was. Take last years 1040 to HR, and you get an instant raise in take home pay!

Other folks actually windup having to send Uncle Sam a check because they owe more than they had withheld. The upside for them is that they won't be paying those Income taxes any more, but in fairness the employer might feel that they're some room for redress. Some folks claim 20 exemptions and they really shouldn't. These folks might get called into HR and have their wages audited to correct or offset their withholding to the proper level. Before you get all angry, it's not the employers responsibility to absorb the tax liability the guy had for other income. He's paying a wage for work. It's a negotiation at this point. The employer was incurring all the costs for compliance in the past and is now fighting to reduce his cost of labor in a new competitive market. The worker was under-withholding in one place to offset another. The workers change in tax & pay goes away. While I'm not real fond of this outcome it doesn't effect many people, in fact it probably only effects those with considerable assets that generate taxable income. (That should make wealth envier's happy.)

Finally regarding salaries... If' you've been paying attention to this point, the two taxes SocSec & Medicare cut the labor rate by 14% -- I'll look ahead a bit to try to help those without calculus. Our target is 23% that means the employer & the workers could split the difference, we said the FICA was 15%, so the employer could give the average worker a 6% take home pay raise and still meet the 23% reduction of labor costs.

Now whether the worker got a pass/push, a raise, or an offset, they're also gonna get the Prebate under the FairTax, so they'll have some extra $$$ in their checkbook every month. And I hope no one lost tract of the fact that the price of goods (as exemplified buy the loaf of bread) hasn't changed.

There's one more item in the supply chain that helps to reduce costs, all those B2B suppliers that have tax-accounting divisions, can shed that overhead. That's hundreds of billions of dollars of wasted effort that can be redirected into productive efforts instead of useless compliance.

Now at this point, unless you have some calculus, you will simply fail to comprehend the rest. The effect of all these cuts in expenses down the chain add up. Guess what they add up to??? Yup 23% After all that, the new cost of a loaf of bread will be $0.77, the new price of the loaf will be the same as the old price $1.00 What opponents fail to understand is that in the deepest way a car is no different from a loaf, just bigger. Every part from windshield wiper vane, to air conditioner belt, has a supply chain, and each and every one of those components is going to be 23% cheaper! And since they're being sold to businesses, there's none of that silly VAT like our EU competitors have to comply with.

Anyone that's seen my writings (in other fora) knows how opposed to gummint controls I am. The under-withholders issue was painful for me to acknowledge, but it represents a necessary albeit slight evil. And if the difference is less than the 6% window, I can live guilt-free with that.

When I was first introduced to the notion of a 23% 'sales tax', I was incredulous. I thought it was the most foolish thing I'd heard in a long time. As I came to understand it, to research it, I came to realize that with proper execution it would transform the economy in wonderful ways. It's important to realize that 50 years ago the critics would have been correct! Trying to implement the FairTax with 'books' would be impossible; with 'computers' it becomes trivial.

So I make another call to action. Learn people! Try to understand. Put prejudice behind you and study the FairTax on its merit. We live in the 21st century, stop thinking like 19th century farmers.

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Despite attempts to engage the boy, Mark, continues his clueless ramblings against the FairTax. Why? The only logical conclusion is that he has an agenda... but that conclusion supposes that there is some comprehension, some intelligence. Sadly, that seems to be lacking.

Why the ad hominum attack? Sorry, but sometimes you just *want* to shoot the messenger!

When logic fails and there is simply no point in arguing, the person that continues to spout nonsensical positions becomes a source of annoyance.

I'm sure Mark was educated in the public schools by teachers that continuously told him that his opinions were valuable and that despite being wrong he should continue to express them. It was good for his self esteem.

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9 comments:

Anonymous said...

ctyankee, if you'd care to join me...

http://absurdityofabsurdity.blogspot.com

Jump in anywhere and have fun! Mark reads it...

MARK said...

Hello, this is me from fairtax absurdity.

Yes, you need to take Econ 101. You need to pay attention this time.

First, the National association of retailers have come out very much against any national sales tax. I would assume they know retail business, wouldn't you?

Here is their link.

http://retailindustry.about.com/b/2005/03/03/retailers-question-greenspan-on-consumption-tax.htm

DO you think these retailers know a little something about econ 101? They eat, live and breath it every day. They give any national sales tax a huge thumbs down.

In fact, you violate your own supposed appreciation of econ 101. Putting the highest sales tax on earth on new car sales, for example, or new home sales, for another, is going to have profound impact on those markets.

When you tax something more, you get less of it, remember? Econ 101. So putting the worlds highest sales tax on a new home, wont increase new home sales. In fact, you insure that new home sale market would be decimated.

A few years ago they tried to but a MUCH more modest sales tax on luxury boats. It decimated the boat industry, and was repealed quickly. It dook the market a few years to recover.

Oh, I know -- all prices will drop if you pass this plan, so you arent' really increasing anyones price, by adding the highest sales tax on earth.

Horse feathers. Doctor Jorgenson himself -- the guru that Fairtax used to chart the embedded taxes -- says Fairtax won't work. He says prices WONT and CANT drop as Fairtax says.

Second, yes this would be a fantstic boon to business -- if it worked. If it worked, it would help everyone, but WOW its a gold Midas touch for business.

Not only do businesses have NO taxes at all under Fairtax -- they get to KEEP the taxes their employees USED to pay. Forget their own freedom for the income tax -- they KEEP the income taxes their employees used to pay, but cutting the wages of those employees, in amount equal to what they used to pay in taxes.

This is such an astonishing fact that most times, when you tell people, they just don't believe they heard right. "You mean employers keep the money all their employees USED to pay in taxes?"

Yes. Thats a basic part of Fairtax.

So employers would come out like gangbusters, right? GM and FORD don't pay much taxes now -- no corporate taxes cause they make no profit. But they would save about 3,000 per car from Fairtax. Thats really good money.

So why oh why have no -- none - big business or corporations come out for this. Its such an amazing windfall to business that its hard to believe.

The reason these businesses don't want Fairtax -- is the same reason the retailers said it could be profoundly bad move. Not a little bad -- profoundly bad.

These business know Fairtax doesnt work like the fairtax people are telling us.

Let me see - Retailers against it, corporations not supporting it -- these are the folks you would think would LOVE it. And should love it, if it worked.

Thats just the problem, it can't work.

It sounds great -- sure. Fantastic.

But its not going to work as they say.

If you want to know why, read the retailers article, read my blog, read Barlett, read the wall street journal.

Its hard to tell, but national articles have suggested even Fairtax leaders don't take it seriously anymore. They seem to now realize the fatal flaws of the sounds good theory.

If you can suspend economic reality, Fairtax works fine.

Another thing, Fairtax is based on cutting the gross pay of all workers. It doesnt say cutting -- it says "readjusting" Uh huh.

Well I learned long ago that anyone that can't explain their plan in honest straight language doesn't have a plan, they have a scheme. The fact that Fairtax took 13 years before they would admit this --- and then even used double talk in the admission -- tells me its not a candid up front plan.

Plus -- do you really think wage earners want their gross pay cut? Whats the rationale to cut their pay? Cause they never saw it?

So what, they paid their federal taxes with it. Thats how they paid their income tax, and FICA. They didn't see the cash, but they saw their check. And they paid their federal taxes with that.

Now, you are going to CUT their gross pay, and they don't get to pay their federal taxes with that money any more. No, they have to still pay federal taxes -- and some will pay considerable MORE taxes than ever - but they will have to pay those taxes with what they had left.

Keep in mind, Im not against the fairtax. I want it to pass, probably more than any of the supporters. I have no doubt I want it to pass more than the Fairtax leaders, who probably would spit bricks if it passed. They know its pretty much a nice sounding gimmick.

But they also know that cancer patients would hate it. They know people wont want 2.00 a gallon sales tax on gasoline.

They know people would be stunned to have to pay their car insurance, and pay the worlds highest sales tax ON their car insurance. And ON their utility bill etc.

So please pass the Fairtax. Im all for it. IF nothing else, we move away from the horrible tax code we have.

Fairtax is essentially a politial gimmick, and thats fine. All is fair. Its a good gimmick mostly because it took a great name -- Fairtax. There isn't anything Fair or even logical about it in my opinion.

ctyankee said...

Mark,

I'm not going to dignify your arguments any longer. The study you cites is a straw-man, full of incorrect assumptions & political bias.

Why would the retailers cite Greenspan and a 2000 data table when they had access to the most up-to-date info? Because the article was a shill.

You *hate* the FairTax, we get it. The problem is your arguments are devoid of rational thought. you lack the critical thinking skills to continue the discussion. Your's are the rantings & ravings of a madman.

ctyankee said...

Mark,

I'm tired of dignifying your arguments any longer. The study you cited is a straw-man, full of incorrect assumptions & political bias.

Why would the retailers cite Greenspan and a 2000 data table when they had access to the most up-to-date info? Because the article was a shill.

You *hate* the FairTax, we get it. The problem is your arguments are devoid of rational thought. you lack the critical thinking skills to continue the discussion. Your's are the rantings & ravings of a madman.

You are so hung up on irrelevant points, (I can't call them facts because they are the twisted interpretations of your mind and not embodied in the FairTax) that rational discussion is impossible.

Let me ask you one question... What good is your "gross pay" when you only take home your "net pay"?

When you negotiated your salary, did you do so thinking that you'd get to take home your entire paycheck?

Did it ever occur to you that the employer has a different basis when figuring out what you "cost" per week?

You may [think you]"make" $100k and take home $80K, but you cost the company $120K maybe more... If you want to keep working at $80k take-home or 100k gross, or $120k labor cost, you better be making the employer $160k or you're ass is out the door. Don't you get it?

When the employer no longer has to send $30K of that cost to the Fed, he gets to lower prices... They all lower prices, because we(the USA) compete with the rest of the world, or don't you shop at Wal*Mart?

The FairTax gets tacked on once at the final point of sale so the gummint can keep spending too much, and the price stays the same as it was before.

MARK said...

No, the study I cited was by National Association of retailers. They did a study too.

Plus, they happen to know retailers.

ANd the retailers -- not the straw man you speak of -- said Fairtax could be a profound mistake.

Why would the National Federation of Retails say that? They aren't playing games. Talk to them.

Why would all sorts of experts say Fairtax is a deeply flawed plan that doesnt add up -- that won't do all the things it says?

Why would you think that if you put the highest sales tax on earth, on say new cars, it won't effect care sales? THats econ 101.

The only way these prices all fall, like Fairtax claims, is if workers - all workers -- up and down the supply chain, agree to take voluntary wage cuts of 30%. Thats not even part of the Fairtax -- thats not part of HR25.

Thats just a scheme Fairtax dreamed up that they want to happen. Do you think millions of workers will voluntarily take 30% pay cut?

Because even BOortz admits -- that voluntary reduction in their pay, is the only way for these prices all to fall.

Otherwise, Fairtax is just a very very very high sales tax.

So -- thats all the Fairtax can be. Cause they wont get this fantasy of all these workers taking a huge cut in their gross pay. It won't happen.

It just depends if you want to deal with reality, or not. If you want to pretend that most of the workers in the country will voluntarily take a huge cut in their hourly pay -- and then pay the worlds highest sales taxes -- then fine. You go ahead and think that.

I don't think it will happen.

The people are going to reject this plan, because it sounded great at the start, but when you see it up close without the BS, thats all it is, a very high sales tax.

ctyankee said...

Mark,

I'm typing this really slowly, to give you a chance to keep up...

Let's try this one topic at a time...

Pay cut: What's the meaning of *gross pay* when there are mandatory withholdings?

When you calm down and think rationally, we'll move on.

Big D said...

Careful ctyankee, Mark's brain only works in one dimension. Simple processes like: Pull down pants, sit, shit, wipe, stand, pull pants back up, flush, took him years to master. He was shaking his ass and wiping his johnson for years until he caught on that he was doing it backwards. Don't try to give him more than one thing to think about, it just sends him into a tirade of insanity. Do we need to say more? Mark debunks himself!

MARK said...

Get an instant raise in take home pay?

Yes, we were told we would all get raises in take home. That was the myth when Fairtax came out.

But since then, the official line has been "clarified" as Boortz puts it.

So now, no one is saying stuff like we get an increase in our take home pay.

We SHOULD -- yes. IF they take away all the takes we used to pay thru payroll deductions, we should get a nice bump in take home.

But Fairtax doesnt want that. Why? Because Fairtax promises us that prices will come down 23 % or so.

For prices to come down, Fairtax math to work, the overwhelming majority of wage earners would have to VOLUNTARILY accept pay cuts equal to what they were taxed before.

Boortz has admitted this, and so has Fairtax.org and Fairtaxgroups.org.

And mathmatically, thats how it would have to be. Taking those wages - that used go to to taxes, and giving it to the business - would make sense. Fairtax does work if that can happen.

Thats the rub - can it happen? Do you really think millions of people will take voluntary wage cuts -- even if its good for them>?


And why doesnt FT make that clear -- hey, we have a great idea -- if every worker will cut their wages 30%, we can lower prices for everyone.

ctyankee said...

Mark,

Still hung up on incorrect interpretations of "talking points"

The increase in available cash includes the effect of the prebate. Prices will stay the same, no one is *forced* to spend more than they are today.

The US now has a negative net savings rate. How long do you think the Chinese will keep holding our paper?

Your negativism and that of your like minded sheep will bring the destruction of the US economy... You will look at each other and say "What happened?"